Taiwan Election Showdown! A Blue Prof and Green Pol Explain
Nov 30, 2023
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Lin Fei-fan, former Deputy Secretary General of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party and Sunflower Movement leader, joins Lu Yeh-chung, a diplomacy professor, to dissect Taiwan's upcoming presidential election. They discuss the implications of a three-party race and the KMT-TPP alliance's collapse. The conversation explores differing views on cross-strait relations, the importance of identity, and domestic issues like economic growth and employment. They also debate balancing military and tech investments for national security amidst increasing regional tensions.
The upcoming Taiwan elections will be a three-way race between the DPP, the KMT, and the TPP, highlighting the dynamics of a first-past-the-post electoral system.
The KMT and DPP have differing views on the Taiwan-China relationship, with the KMT emphasizing dialogue and cooperation, while the DPP focuses on strengthening ties with democratic allies and asserting Taiwan's sovereignty.
Both the KMT and DPP prioritize economic development, but the DPP focuses on social welfare and critical industries like the semiconductor sector, while the KMT leans toward conservative values and support for small businesses.
Deep dives
Key Points on the Taiwan Elections
The upcoming Taiwan elections have entered a critical phase with 46 days remaining. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) faces a three-way race against the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP). Despite a drop in the DPP's polling numbers earlier this year, DPP candidate Lai Ching-de's support has remained steady in the 30s. However, concerns about a victory and the need for an active campaign persist among DPP supporters.
Optimism for Change and the Attitude Towards CCP
While the KMT supporters are cautiously optimistic about a political party turnover, more than 50-60% of the general public in Taiwan hope for a change in governance. The desire for a political party turnover is not driven by hatred towards the DPP, but rather as a practice for democratic consolidation. Additionally, the younger generation in Taiwan is becoming more aware of their civil rights and is examining the political platforms of major parties. There is also a recognition that the difference in regime between Taiwan and China impacts the sense of national identity.
Dialogues and Engagement with China
The DPP supports pragmatic engagement with China while maintaining a strong stance on human rights issues and maintaining the status quo. They emphasize the need to strike a balance between engaging with China and engaging with the global community. On the other hand, the KMT advocates for dialogue without preconditions and aims to make friends with both global powers and China. They believe that functional agreements can help restore political trust and avoid conflicts. However, differences exist between the KMT and DPP regarding the acceptance of preconditions set by China.
Main Idea/Key Point 1
The main difference between the KMT and DPP parties lies in their approach to the Taiwan-China relationship. While the KMT has historically emphasized dialogue and cooperation with China, the DPP is more focused on strengthening ties with democratic allies and asserting Taiwan's sovereignty. The KMT's previous tenure in power saw increased economic and social cooperation with China, while the DPP prioritized diversifying international partnerships and enhancing social welfare within Taiwan. The upcoming election will likely center on these differing approaches and how they could affect Taiwan's economy, social issues, and national security.
Main Idea/Key Point 2
Apart from the Taiwan-China relationship, both the KMT and DPP have domestic policies that address key issues in Taiwan. The DPP's platform leans towards social welfare and economic development, focusing on supporting young families, ensuring quality education, and stimulating sustainable economic growth. They also prioritize critical industries like the semiconductor sector, which serves as a pillar for Taiwan's economic growth and national security. The KMT also emphasizes economic development but leans more toward conservative values. They advocate for cooperation with like-minded countries and aim to provide support for small and medium-sized businesses to create jobs and boost economic resilience. Both parties acknowledge the importance of balancing resources between national security and critical industries, given Taiwan's evolving strategic environment and economic needs.
The Taiwanese populace will head to the polls to choose their next president on January 13, 2024 — and the three-party slate is set!
To discuss, we brought on Lu Yeh-chung 盧業中 — a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University 國立政治大學 — and Lin Fei-fan 林飛帆, previously the Deputy-Secretary of the DPP and well-known for leading the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014.
Our conversation gets into:
What a three-party race means in a first-past-the-post electoral system, and how the pan-blue and pan-green camps are feeling;
Why the KMT-TPP alliance broke down, and what the pan-blue side needs to do to mobilize its electorate;
The KMT’s and DPP’s views on whether Taiwanese and mainland Chinese are part of the same family 兩岸一家人;
What the 1992 Consensus means to the KMT and DPP, and the tensions and synergies between idealism and functionalism in Taiwanese politics;
How the CCP views the upcoming election, and to what extent it really fears pro-independence activists in Taiwan;
What demarcates the KMT and DPP outside of cross-Strait politics, and which domestic issues are most compelling for the average Taiwanese voter;
And how the KMT and DPP balance government spending on hard military assets versus subsidizing critical technologies like semiconductors.
