#70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows)

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Jul 9, 2024

Richard Meadows, a finance journalist and author of "Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World," dives into the nuances of Bayesian reasoning. He questions whether Bayesian rationality is the best way to navigate uncertainty and discusses its cultural influence in contrast to other approaches. The conversation touches on the differences between truth and certainty, the nature of evidence in science, and the importance of open-mindedness in belief formation. Meadows challenges listeners to rethink their views and engage with these complex ideas.

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ANECDOTE

Richard's Intellectual Journey

Richard Meadows describes his intellectual journey from atheism to rationality and effective altruism.
He then discovered David Deutsch and critical rationalism through a friend at an EA retreat.

INSIGHT

Critique of Increments' Arguments

Meadows argues that Ben and Vaden sometimes use weak arguments against Bayesian rationalists.
He also notes they don't fully explain their good arguments and overlook Bayesianism's admirable aspects.

INSIGHT

Positive Aspects of Bayesian Rationalism

Vaden acknowledges the positive influence of LessWrong and Effective Altruism.
He highlights Julia Galef's work as a strong example of Bayesian rationalism.

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Optionality

How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World

Richard Meadows

Rationality

From AI to Zombies

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Infinite jest

wit and humor in Italian Renaissance art

Paul Barolsky

In this book, Paul Barolsky examines the role of wit and humor in Italian Renaissance art, providing insights into the artistic and cultural context of the period. The work delves into how artists of the Renaissance used humor and wit in their creations, reflecting the broader cultural and social attitudes of the time.

The Scout Mindset

None

Julia Galef

Dans "The Scout Mindset", Julia Galef explore la différence entre deux approches mentales : le "Mindset du Soldat", axé sur la défense de ses croyances, et le "Mindset du Scout", qui privilégie la recherche de la vérité, même si cela remet en question ses propres convictions. L'auteure argumente que le Mindset du Scout est essentiel pour une prise de décision rationnelle et efficace. Le livre propose des outils et des techniques pour cultiver ce Mindset, en encourageant l'ouverture d'esprit, la remise en question et l'acceptation de l'incertitude. Galef utilise des exemples concrets et des anecdotes pour illustrer ses points, rendant le livre accessible à un large public. L'ouvrage est une invitation à adopter une approche plus objective et plus rigoureuse dans la formation de ses opinions et dans la prise de décisions.

The Beginning of Infinity

Explanations That Transform the World

David Deutsch

In this groundbreaking book, David Deutsch argues that explanations have a fundamental place in the universe and that improving them is the basic regulating principle of all successful human endeavor. The book takes readers on a journey through various fields of science, history of civilization, art, moral values, and the theory of political institutions. Deutsch explains how we form new explanations and drop bad ones, and discusses the conditions under which progress, which he argues is potentially boundless, can and cannot happen. He emphasizes the importance of good explanations, which he defines as those that are 'hard to vary' and have 'reach', and argues that these explanations are central to the Enlightenment way of thinking and to all scientific and philosophical progress.

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman

In this book, Daniel Kahneman takes readers on a tour of the mind, explaining how the two systems of thought shape our judgments and decisions. System 1 is fast, automatic, and emotional, while System 2 is slower, effortful, and logical. Kahneman discusses the impact of cognitive biases, the difficulties of predicting future happiness, and the effects of overconfidence on corporate strategies. He offers practical insights into how to guard against mental glitches and how to benefit from slow thinking in both personal and business life. The book also explores the distinction between the 'experiencing self' and the 'remembering self' and their roles in our perception of happiness.

The God Delusion

Richard Dawkins

In 'The God Delusion', Richard Dawkins argues that the belief in a supernatural creator, God, is almost certainly false and qualifies as a delusion. He examines God in various forms, from the Old Testament to the Celestial Watchmaker, and critiques the major arguments for religion. Dawkins discusses how religion fuels war, fosters bigotry, and abuses children, and he advocates for atheism as a morally and intellectually fulfilling worldview. The book also explores the relationship between religion and morality, suggesting that morality can exist independently of religion, and argues against the teaching of religion in schools as a form of indoctrination[2][3][4].

Lolita

Vladimir Nabokov

The novel, presented as the posthumously published memoirs of Humbert Humbert, explores themes of obsession, pedophilia, and the manipulation of reality. Humbert, a European intellectual and pedophile, becomes infatuated with Dolores Haze, whom he kidnaps and sexually abuses after marrying her mother. The narrative delves into the complex and disturbing relationship between Humbert and Lolita, highlighting issues of morality, solipsism, and the erasure of Lolita's independent identity. The book is known for its eloquent but deceptive narrator and its exploration of delusion, coercion, and cruelty.

The Brothers Karamazov

Larissa Volokhonsky

Fyodor Dostoevsky

Richard Pevear

Set in 19th-century Russia, 'The Brothers Karamazov' is a novel that delves into the lives of the Karamazov family, focusing on the three brothers—Dmitri, Ivan, and Alyosha—and their complex relationships with their father, Fyodor Pavlovich Karamazov. The novel is a murder mystery, a courtroom drama, and an exploration of erotic rivalry, faith, doubt, and reason. It examines the human psyche, moral dilemmas, and the search for meaning in a world fraught with suffering and uncertainty. The story revolves around the murder of Fyodor Pavlovich and the subsequent trial of Dmitri, accused of the crime, while exploring deeper themes of Russian life, social and spiritual striving, and the clash between faith and reason[2][5][4].

The Gulag Archipelago

An Experiment in Literary Investigation

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

The Gulag Archipelago is a three-volume series written by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, exploring the Soviet labour camp system through a mix of historical narrative, personal accounts, and literary investigation. The book traces the history of the Gulag from Vladimir Lenin's decrees to the era of Nikita Khrushchev, detailing the arrest, conviction, transport, and imprisonment of prisoners. It includes Solzhenitsyn's own experiences as a Gulag prisoner and accounts from other inmates, highlighting the brutal conditions, forced labor, and the psychological and physical suffering of the prisoners. The work is a testament to the human spirit's struggle against evil and serves as a comprehensive critique of the Soviet regime's use of terror against its population[2][5][3].

Sick of hearing us shouting about Bayesianism? Well today you're in luck, because this time, someone shouts at us about Bayesianism! Richard Meadows, finance journalist, author, and Ben's secretive podcast paramour, takes us to task. Are we being unfair to the Bayesians? Is Bayesian rationality optimal in theory, and the rest of us are just coping with an uncertain world? Is this why the Bayesian rationalists have so much cultural influence (and money, and fame, and media attention, and ...), and we, ahem, uhhh, don't?

Check out Rich's website, his book Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World, and his podcast.

We discuss

The pros of the rationality and EA communities
Whether Bayesian epistemology contributes to open-mindedness
The fact that evidence doesn't speak for itself
The fact that the world doesn't come bundled as discrete chunks of evidence
Whether Bayesian epistemology would be "optimal" for Laplace's demon
The difference between truth and certainty
Vaden's tone issues and why he gets animated about this subject.

References

Scott's original piece: In continued defense of non-frequentist probabilities
Scott Alexander's post about rootclaim
Our previous episode on Scott's piece: #69 - Contra Scott Alexander on Probability
Rootclaim
Ben's blogpost You need a theory for that theory
Cox's theorem
Aumann's agreement theorem
Vaden's blogposts mentioned in the episode:
- Critical Rationalism and Bayesian Epistemology
- Proving Too Much

Socials

Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani
Follow Rich at @MeadowsRichard
Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link
Help us calibrate our credences and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here. Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here.
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What's your favorite theory that is neither true nor useful? Tell us over at incrementspodcast@gmail.com.

Special Guest: Richard Meadows.

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