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#70 - ... and Bayes Bites Back (w/ Richard Meadows)
Jul 9, 2024
Richard Meadows, a finance journalist and author of "Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World," dives into the nuances of Bayesian reasoning. He questions whether Bayesian rationality is the best way to navigate uncertainty and discusses its cultural influence in contrast to other approaches. The conversation touches on the differences between truth and certainty, the nature of evidence in science, and the importance of open-mindedness in belief formation. Meadows challenges listeners to rethink their views and engage with these complex ideas.
01:30:34
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Quick takeaways
- Engaging in creative explanations and criticism fosters open-mindedness and flexibility, essential for navigating uncertainty beyond Bayesian frameworks.
- Bayesian rationality, while precise, can hinder understanding complex problems by favoring beliefs over the pursuit of truth and knowledge exploration.
Deep dives
The Importance of Creative Conjectures
New knowledge emerges from the process of generating creative explanations and subjecting them to criticism. This approach, rooted in Popperian ideas, emphasizes the need for open-mindedness and flexibility in thinking rather than strictly adhering to Bayesian frameworks. When faced with uncertainty, it is essential to engage in dialogue and exploration of various ideas instead of relying solely on quantitative assessments or probabilities. This method allows for the identification of potentially false theories and fosters innovation through the interplay of ideas.
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