Americano: can Trump really end the war in Ukraine?
Nov 13, 2024
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Freddy Gray chats with Owen Matthews, the Russia editor for The Spectator, about the implications of Trump's potential presidency on the Ukraine war. They discuss Trump’s negotiating leverage with Putin and the dynamics of U.S. military aid shifting under his influence. The conversation delves into Europe’s defense capabilities and NATO's challenges amidst the ongoing conflict. Matthews highlights the roles of Poland and the Baltic states in shaping these discussions, revealing the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding Ukraine.
Trump’s strategy to pressure Ukraine into negotiations through military aid cuts may lack sufficient leverage over both Ukraine and Russia.
Zelensky faces significant political challenges in negotiating peace, given the potential for domestic unrest and resistance from nationalist factions.
Deep dives
The Nature of Trump's Relationship with Putin
There is speculation surrounding a recent phone call between Trump and Putin regarding the situation in Ukraine, with uncertainty about whether it actually took place. Trump's objective appears to be to pressure both Ukraine and Russia into negotiations, suggesting he could withdraw military aid to Ukraine if they do not comply. However, this strategy raises questions about what Trump could realistically offer Putin that he does not already have through military action. The current military dynamics indicate that Russia is advancing in Ukraine, creating a scenario where Trump’s leverage over both parties may be insufficient to bring about meaningful negotiations.
Challenges in U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine
The level of U.S. military aid to Ukraine has significantly decreased, leading to concerns about its effectiveness in the ongoing conflict. Previously, military aid tranches reached as high as $60 billion, but recent support dwindled to about $9 billion, primarily earmarked for non-lethal assistance. As Ukraine faces increasing pressures on the battlefield, there is a strong argument that Trump might use the threat of further aid cuts to force Ukraine into negotiations. However, this tactic would require both support from the Ukrainian government and also a willingness from Putin to engage in diplomacy, which remains uncertain.
Zelensky's Political Survival and the Future of Ukraine
Zelensky's ability to negotiate peace amidst ongoing war presents a significant political challenge, as there are fears that any settlement could lead to domestic unrest. While he is committed to ending the conflict, the Ukrainian political landscape is rife with factions that may oppose compromises with Russia. Observers suggest that outside pressure, particularly from a new U.S. administration, could provide Zelensky with the political cover to pursue negotiations. However, the aftermath of such negotiations poses questions about Ukraine's governability, particularly if right-wing nationalist elements resist any ceasefire arrangements.
Freddy Gray speaks to the Spectator's Russia editor Owen Matthews about Trump's plan for Ukraine. How much leverage does he have in negotiations with Putin? Plus, what does a Trump presidency mean for the future of NATO itself?
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