Macro Mondays #53 - Get the Hell Outta Europe: Inflation, Elections, and Market Moves
Jun 17, 2024
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Exploring rise in copper consumption in China due to electric vehicles and renewable energy. French cuisine, US inflation, freight rates, and copper analysts discussed. Contrasting UK and European inflation with focus on wage growth post-Brexit. Analysis of Tesla's position in EV market and market investment strategies. Significance of macro regime indicator and listener feedback on stock market forecasts. Discussion on long-term commitment, Solana tattoo, cryptocurrency cycle, and humorous meme comparisons.
39:02
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Quick takeaways
US inflation trends are under scrutiny with soft numbers impacting outlooks, potentially prompting a revision in Federal Reserve forecasts.
Political upheaval in France due to surprise legislative elections could challenge economic reforms amid uncertainties and shifts in European politics.
Deep dives
Copper Consumption in China Amidst EV and Construction Trends
Following an initial surge in copper consumption in China, driven by the rise in EV, solar panel, and wind turbine production, recent tariffs imposed by the US and the EU have dampened export momentum. China's construction sector is experiencing a significant downturn, reminiscent of 2008 levels, despite being a major consumer of global copper supply, accounting for 50% of total consumption.
US Inflation Dynamics and Potential Fed Scenario
US inflation trends are under scrutiny, with soft numbers observed in both consumer and producer price indices. Surprising decreases in categories like motor vehicle insurance costs are impacting inflation outlooks. The potential disinflation in certain sectors could prompt the Federal Reserve to revise its inflation forecasts down, signaling a shift in monetary policy.
French Election Chaos and Political Turbulence
Political upheaval in France stemming from surprise legislative elections has thrown major parties into disarray. With uncertainties around right-wing momentum, there is a looming three-horse race scenario that could lead to a hung parliament. The evolving dynamics could challenge economic reforms and policy responses in France amid broader European political shifts.
Implications of Chinese Copper Consumption Trends
China's fluctuating copper consumption levels are signaling a potential market downturn, contrary to earlier projections. Recent declines in copper usage, especially in construction, have raised concerns about inventory buildups and speculative trading. The discrepancy between local and international consumption patterns underscores the complex influence of Chinese policies on global metal markets.
🔥 𝗝𝗢𝗜𝗡 Real Vision for FREE https://rvtv.io/3MMeRfQ. Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, is back for another episode of Macro Mondays with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, to dig into what’s going on with the European economy.
Andreas and Mikkel also cover China, geopolitics, and Solana. Recorded on June 14, 2024.
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