Supernova & Shooting Star: The New AI Benchmarks | Janelle Teng (Partner, Bessemer Venture Partners)

In this special live episode of The Data Minute, recorded in San Francisco, Peter is joined by Janelle Teng from Bessemer Venture Partners for a data-driven look at the state of AI fundraising.

Peter and Janelle walk through the data on everything from the AI valuation premium to the new benchmarks for growth, breaking down Bessemer's "Supernovas" and "Shooting Stars" framework. They discuss why fundraising timelines have gotten longer, how dilution remains steady despite soaring valuations, and why San Francisco is still the undisputed center of the AI boom. Plus, they take questions from an audience of AI founders on everything from calculating TAM to navigating a potential AI bubble.

This is your front-row seat to the conversation every AI founder needs to hear.The 

State of AI 2025 - Bessemer Venture Partners:
https://www.bvp.com/atlas/the-state-of-ai-2025

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01:03 – A look back: Venture funding since 2021
02:35 – Pre-ChatGPT vs. Post-ChatGPT funding waves
04:18 – How long should your runway be today?
04:54 – "Nail it before you scale it": The philosophy of efficient growth
06:15 – The new reality of Seed-to-Series-A graduation rates
07:31 – Is every software company now an AI company?
09:27 – The AI valuation premium at the Seed stage
11:14 – AI infrastructure vs. application layer companies
13:06 – Bessemer's benchmarks: "Supernovas" vs. "Shooting Stars"
14:36 – Why top-line growth can be misleading
17:10 – Why retention is table stakes, but gross margins can wait
21:12 – The new benchmark: Revenue per employee
22:48 – Advice for founders who aren't a "Supernova"
26:45 – Why dilution has remained steady at ~20%
30:39 – Valuation is not a badge of honor—it's a hurdle
33:20 – Why the Bay Area is still the center of the AI universe
35:56 – The hiring slowdown and the rise of lean teams
38:51 – The soaring cost of AI/ML engineering talent
40:00 – Bessemer's key takeaways on the future of AI
43:13 – Audience Q&A starts
43:33 – Q1: How should founders think about calculating TAM?
46:44 – Q2: As a frontier tech company, how do we compete with app-layer startups?
48:48 – Q3: How do we compete against incumbents who are adding native AI features?
51:31 – Q4: Should VCs back fewer "good" companies to chase the "Supernovas"?
55:03 – Q5: Are we in an AI bubble, and when will it pop?

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