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RJ Bell's Dream Preview

Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks + Puerto Rico Open

Mar 5, 2025
42:16

-Cognizant review -Discussing top 9 players on AP odds board -1 t10 -3 outrights

-Sleeper, 2 FRL, 2 lineups -Scoring, bet bet for AP -1 outright and 3 p2p for Puerto Rico Open

-1 sleeper for Astara Chile Classic For more on the world of golf, follow Doc on X @ drmedia59


Week 10 Overview and Tournament Preview

[Will Doctor] (0:38 - 0:53)

  • Arnold Palmer Invitational (API) at Bay Hill, Orlando: 70 superstars in the field, including 45 of the top 50 golfers from the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR).
  • Puerto Rico Open at Grand Reserve: 132-player field with lower-ranked players and potential breakthrough candidates.

[Will Doctor] (0:53 - 38:28)

  • The show covers full API picks, four Puerto Rico picks, and one Corn Fairy Tour pick in Chile.
  • Season performance update:
  • Minus 1.7 units for Week 9
  • Total loss: 40.5 units for the season, indicating the need for a turnaround.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Analysis

Course Insights for Bay Hill

  • Challenging conditions:
  • Four-inch rough – Players missing fairways will struggle.
  • Water on 9 of 18 holes – Course management is key.
  • Bermuda greens running at 13.5 speed – Requires strong putting.
  • Winning formula:
  • Elite total drivers (accuracy and distance)
  • Solid Bermuda putters

Top 9 Players Analysis

[Scotty Scheffler] (4-1 odds)

  • Defending champion, won by 5 shots in 2023.
  • Strengths: Best driver in the field, improved putting.
  • Pick: Outright winner bet (4-1).

[Rory McIlroy] (8.5-1)

  • Former winner (2018), solid Bay Hill history.
  • Concerns: Struggled with putter and driving accuracy at Torrey Pines.
  • PASS on betting.

[Ludvig Åberg] (16-1)

  • Won Genesis Invitational.
  • Strong iron play but lost shots in chipping at Bay Hill previously.
  • Pick: Top 10 at +130 (MGM).

[Collin Morikawa] (22-1)

  • Consistent season, but below-average Bermuda putter.
  • Missed cuts last two starts at Bay Hill.
  • PASS.

[Xander Schauffele] (22-1)

  • Returning from rib injury, solid Bay Hill history.
  • PASS due to lack of value at current odds.

[Justin Thomas] (28-1)

  • Improved ball-striking and recent putting success on Bermuda.
  • Pick: Top 10 at +175 (MGM).

[Patrick Cantlay] (30-1)

  • T4 at Bay Hill two years ago, recent strong ball-striking form.
  • Pick: Outright bet at 30-1.

[Tommy Fleetwood] (30-1)

  • Consistent form but poor matchups and betting value.
  • PASS.

Other API Picks

  • Best bet: Ludvig Åberg Top 10 at +130 (MGM).
  • First-round leader bets:
  • Scheffler (10-1, MGM)
  • Åberg (22-1, MGM)
  • DraftKings lineup: Oberg, Cantlay, Henley, Theegala, Thompson, Gracerman.
  • Winning score prediction: -11 under par.

Puerto Rico Open Picks

Outrights and Placement Bets

  1. Adrian Dumont de Chassart (60-1 outright, +190 for top 20)
  • Finished 6th last year, strong recent form.
  • Pick: Top 20 and outright winner bet.
  1. Henrik Norlander (+225 top 20)
  • Great iron play and top 20 in last two Puerto Rico Opens.
  • Pick: Top 20 bet.
  1. Davis Riley (+500 top 20)
  • Two-time PGA Tour winner, elite putter on Paspalum greens.
  • Pick: Sleeper top 20 bet.

Corn Fairy Tour – Astara Chile Classic

[Giuseppe Puebla] (11-1 for top 10)

  • 16-year-old prodigy, recent runner-up at a high-profile junior event.
  • Won twice on minor league golf tour.
  • Pick: Top 10 bet at 11-1.

Final Thoughts

  • Week 10 preview ends with a call to action: Follow @DRMedia59 on X and @KingDr1 on Instagram for updates.
  • Next week: Players Championship preview.

Summary of Picks

Arnold Palmer Invitational:

  • Outright winners: Scheffler (4-1), Cantlay (30-1), Gracerman (110-1).
  • Top 10: Åberg (+130), Thomas (+175).
  • First-round leaders: Scheffler (10-1), Åberg (22-1).

Puerto Rico Open:

  • Outright winner: Dumont de Chassart (60-1).
  • Top 20: Dumont de Chassart (+190), Norlander (+225), Riley (+500).

Astara Chile Classic:

  • Top 10: Giuseppe Puebla (11-1).


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