HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on jobs, rates, and the road ahead
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Apr 11, 2025 In this insightful discussion, the chaos in the housing market is dissected, spotlighting how political decisions impact economic indicators like jobless claims. The conversation shifts to the Federal Reserve's crucial role in shaping mortgage rates and homebuyer behavior amid inflation and labor stability. Expert analysis highlights the market's surprising resilience despite ongoing challenges, offering a hopeful outlook on the road ahead for the economy.
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Bond Market Sensitivity
- The bond market's reaction to the rumored tariff pause wasn't extreme, but significant enough to get the White House's attention.
- This suggests the administration is closely monitoring bond markets and may adjust policies based on their reactions.
Fed vs. Market Expectations
- The Federal Reserve wants the Fed funds rate to mirror inflation, but the market expects more aggressive rate cuts.
- This difference in expectations is creating conflict between the Fed and the market.
Fed's Hawkish Stance
- The Fed has become more hawkish, prioritizing breaking the labor market before considering aggressive rate cuts.
- This contrasts with their previous stance of aligning the Fed funds rate with inflation.