Less Noise, More Signal Where will the marginal liquidity come from in 2026? (w/ Michael Howell & Capital Flows)
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Jan 22, 2026 
Joining the discussion are Michael Howell, a financial expert with over 40 years of experience, and Capital Flows, a macro commentator focused on capital flow frameworks. They delve into the current state of market liquidity and the significance of cross-border capital flows. Topics include Japan's unique fiscal strategies, China's monetary policies, and the future prospects for Bitcoin amid shifting market dynamics. They also explore the contrasting liquidity scenarios in the U.S. and Japan, and ponder the possibilities of a Goldilocks economy.
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Capital Flows Drive Market Instability
- Cross-border capital flows are the critical drivers and common triggers of market instability.
- Watching movements of money across regions reveals where liquidity will amplify or reverse market trends.
Decompose Liquidity Sources And Destinations
- Break down each agent contributing liquidity to map sources and destinations in real time.
- Use that decomposition to judge whether moves are persistent or likely to mean-revert.
Textbooks Miss Big-Picture Drivers
- Academic finance often misses large systemic drivers by focusing on marginal arbitrage.
- Term and risk premia move widely and are key levers that capital flows and central banks shift.
