700,000 People Just Lost Their Job... What’s Next for the Economy?
Dec 9, 2024
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In a compelling discussion, economist Steve Van Metre dives into the recent loss of 700,000 jobs and its implications for the U.S. economy. He highlights the alarming rise in unemployment rates, emphasizing that the true figures are much worse than reported. The conversation also probes the disconnect between corporate hiring trends and consumer spending, revealing how job scarcity affects economic contributions. Lastly, Van Metre addresses the persistent challenges in the labor market, even amid post-election optimism about a recovery.
The significant drop of 700,000 jobs indicates a troubling trend in the labor market that transcends one-off factors.
Rising unemployment rates and stagnant hiring could lead to reduced consumer spending, risking a broader economic downturn.
Deep dives
Sharp Decline in Employment Figures
Employment saw a significant drop of 700,000 jobs over the past two months, raising concerns about the stability of the labor market. This decline was particularly highlighted in the household survey, which suggested that the true unemployment rate could be as high as 4.8% when accounting for those leaving the workforce. Despite a reported increase in payroll numbers for November, the prevailing focus remains on rising unemployment figures, indicating a weakening job market. This trend is corroborated by other labor market statistics, indicating that job losses are not merely temporary fluctuations but part of a broader, troubling pattern.
Spending Habits and Economic Implications
Household spending is expected to decline as individuals face prolonged unemployment, which poses serious implications for the economy. The experience from Canada, where unemployment spiked despite an increase in payroll numbers, serves as a cautionary example for the U.S. This pattern indicates that a stagnant labor market leads to reduced consumer spending, which in turn affects demand for goods and services, creating a ripple effect throughout the economy. As people find themselves stuck on unemployment for extended periods, their ability to contribute to economic activity diminishes significantly.
Global Economic Stress Signals
The current labor market trends in the U.S. echo similar challenges faced globally, particularly in neighboring economies like Canada. Declining payroll figures and rising unemployment rates in these interconnected markets threaten to create a synchronized economic downturn. Employers are not hiring at a pace that would typically support economic recovery, fueling fears of a more severe economic crisis. These global economic strains suggest that the labor market's struggles in the U.S. are not isolated, with potential long-term consequences that could reverberate across borders.
The BLS labor data had a chance to show that October's weakness really was just a combination of one-off factors, instead did everything to confirm that it wasn't those at all. That includes the headline payroll number, too. Unemployment is up and, when you properly account for everyone, up A LOT. Just like Canada.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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