FT property correspondents Robert Armstrong and Joshua Oliver discuss the recent decline in shares of New York Community Bank Corp and its impact on the commercial real estate market. They explore the challenges in commercial real estate, the potential impact on regional banks, and the slow-moving nature of the sector. The hosts also have a contrasting discussion on returning to the office post-COVID-19.
The troubles faced by New York Community Bancorp and its exposure to commercial real estate loans highlight potential issues in the commercial real estate market, regional banks, and the broader economy.
Surviving until 2025 is a key goal for real estate owners, banking on the interest rate cycle to lift them out of trouble, while the sector faces challenges such as falling values, high leverage, and changing office demands.
Deep dives
Troubled New York Community Bank Corp raises concerns about commercial real estate sector
Shares of New York Community Bank Corp fell 40% following losses on two real estate loans, highlighting concerns about the commercial real estate sector. The bank's losses and provision for future losses indicate potential trouble in the sector, with worries that more banks may be impacted. Commercial real estate faces challenges due to falling values, high leverage, and changing office demands. Buildings with high leverage and declining values may result in loans being worth more than the building, leading to possible defaults and economic consequences. While the likelihood of a bank run is low due to regulatory protections, the sector remains an area of concern.
The slow-moving nature of commercial real estate and its impact on the banking system
Commercial real estate operates slowly, with liquidity events taking years to materialize and losses often not crystallized until much later. Refinancing plays a significant role in the sector, with different buildings facing different refinancing events and outcomes. Surviving until 2025 is a common goal for real estate owners, hoping that the interest rate cycle will lift them out of trouble. While defaults may occur and some properties may need to be redeveloped for alternative purposes, cataclysmic consequences may be avoided if enough properties can weather the storm and wait for market recovery.
The contrasting perspectives on returning to the office
Josh Oliver is long on the return to the office, anticipating that business leaders will push for increased office presence despite the benefits of working from home. However, Rob Armstrong is short on a forceful return to the office, emphasizing the value of remote work and the inefficiency of commuting. The debate highlights the differing views on the future of work and the balance between productivity and personal well-being. While a complete return to pre-COVID office dynamics is unlikely, finding a sustainable equilibrium that acknowledges the advantages of both remote work and office collaboration remains a priority.
New York Community Bancorp shares fell 38% on Wednesday, partly on worries about the bank’s exposure to commercial real estate. Today on the show, Ethan Wu is joined by Robert Armstrong and FT property correspondent Joshua Oliver, who explain what’s going on with NYCB, and what the bank’s troubles tell us about the commercial real estate market, regional banks and the broader economy. Also, we are both long and short workers returning to the office.