The Plot Twist on Bearish Vibes

Apr 18, 2025

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INSIGHT

Powell Should Consider Rate Cuts

Jerome Powell underplayed favorable inflation data and inflation expectations in his testimony.
Professor Siegel believes Powell should consider preemptive rate cuts to offset recession risks from tariffs.

ADVICE

CEOs Must Update Earnings Guidance

CEOs should analyze how tariffs impact their earnings and provide multiple scenarios to shareholders.
Investors should be cautious as many earnings estimates still don’t reflect tariff uncertainty.

INSIGHT

Tariff Impact on Spending and GDP

Tariffs may temporarily increase spending as buyers rush to stockpile goods.
However, this borrowing against the future risks leading to a negative GDP print and potential recession.

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Show from 04/18/25 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel dive into this week’s market outlook, starting with Powell’s latest commentary and potential rate cuts. The Professor expresses concern over Powell downplaying recent favorable inflation data and suggests a preemptive rate cut is warranted, warning of recession risks if tariffs persist. He also critiques corporate earnings guidance in the face of rising trade uncertainty and emphasizes how tariffs could cap market growth for the foreseeable future. (17:32) Jeremy continues the conversation with Sam, Chris, Jeff, and Kevin, covering a wide array of macro topics. The discussion highlights bullish sentiment on non-U.S. markets, especially Japan, Mexico, and India amid shifting trade dynamics. The group also debates long-term investment themes, including the resilience of AI and tech despite tariff concerns, the resurgence of gold, and the critical role of cybersecurity in modern portfolios. Guest: Samuel Rines is a Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, where he extends the firm's custom model portfolio management capabilities. Before joining WisdomTree in 2024, he was the Managing Director at CORBU, LLC, leading the PolyMacro advisory product. Christopher Gannatti began at WisdomTree as a Research Analyst in December 2010, working directly with Jeremy Schwartz, CFA®, Director of Research. In January of 2014, he was promoted to Associate Director of Research where he was responsible to lead different groups of analysts and strategists within the broader Research team at WisdomTree. In February of 2018, Christopher was promoted to Head of Research, Europe, where he was based out of WisdomTree’s London office and was responsible for the full WisdomTree research effort within the European market, as well as supporting the UCITs platform globally. In November 2021, Christopher was promoted to Global Head of Research, now responsible for numerous communications on investment strategy globally, particularly in the thematic equity space Follow Sam Rines on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines Follow Chris Gannatti on X: https://x.com/SamuelRines Wisdom Tree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments