Taylor Nugent, NAB’s market strategist, shares insights on Jerome Powell's recent comments regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts. He discusses the mixed US data, highlighting strong retail sales and unexpected manufacturing growth. There’s a focus on market reactions and the global implications of these developments. Nugent also touches on the week ahead, suggesting it will be filled with central bank commentary rather than concrete data. This analysis paints a picture of a complex economic landscape where uncertainty looms.
Jerome Powell's remarks indicate a cautious Federal Reserve stance on interest rates, reducing the likelihood of a December cut to nearly 50%.
Mixed economic data reveals resilience in retail sales while challenging manufacturing conditions create uncertainty about the overall U.S. economic momentum.
Deep dives
Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Uncertainty
The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has diminished following remarks made by Jerome Powell. He indicated that the economy is not showing urgency for a rate decrease, sparking skepticism among market participants. This shift in sentiment has resulted in pricing for a December cut dropping to around 50%, as opposed to earlier expectations. Powell's commentary highlights the Fed's cautious approach, suggesting they may not proceed with rate changes on a regular basis as they assess incoming economic data over the next few months.
Mixed Economic Data Signals
Recent economic data reflects a complex landscape for the U.S. economy, with retail sales showing resilience while industrial production wavers. Retail sales for October increased by 0.4% month on month, exceeding expectations, which suggests consumer strength heading into the fourth quarter. In contrast, industrial production fell 0.3%, partially attributed to Boeing strikes and adverse weather conditions, indicating softer manufacturing performance. These mixed signals create uncertainty about overall economic momentum and imply a cautious outlook for forthcoming Fed decisions.
Global Economic Perspectives and Currency Movements
International economic indicators demonstrate varied performance across major markets, impacting currency valuations accordingly. Japan's GDP growth of 0.2% for Q3 aligns with expectations, yet concerns linger over export declines and a rising yen in response to government scrutiny. Meanwhile, China's mixed data, showing a 4.8% year-on-year increase in retail sales, raises questions about the sustainability of consumer demand assisted by recent stimulus measures. Consequently, currency dynamics are influenced by these global shifts, with the yen outperforming the dollar amidst these economic fluctuations.
Just after Friday’s podcast Jerome Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates, raising doubts as to whether a cut in December was going to happen. Market pricing fell, to the point where it’s now closer to a 50:50 chance. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what was said, and the mixed US data from Friday, that included strong retail sales and an (unbelievably) strong increase in manufacturing in the NY Fed survey. China’s data on Friday also gave some hope. This week, Taylor suggests, markets will have more words from central bank speakers and the like, rather than hard numbers to go on. It’s going to be one of those weeks.