ISMS 19: 5% March 2023 CPI Could Fall to 4% By Year-End; If Oil Doesn’t Fly

Mar 2023 US CPI was 5%, down from 6% in Feb and off its June 2022 peak of 9.1%

Mar 2023, the food component was up 8.5% but has come off its Aug 2022 11.4% peak

Mar 2023, the energy component was down 6.4, a massive fall from its 41.6% June 2022 peak

In Mar 2023, all other items were flat MoM at 5.6%, down from Mar 2022 6.5% high

Without a surge in oil US, we forecast CPI could end 2023 at 4%

Remember that CPI is not inflation