Media Predictions for 2026 with Evan Shapiro

I sat down with Evan Shapiro, the legendary media cartographer and author of the must-read substack Media War and Peace, to kick off 2026 with bold predictions about where our industry is heading. Evan didn't hold back as he unpacked the tension between AI-driven automation and the raw authenticity that makes creators so powerful. We explored how scale and reach are becoming vanity metrics, while fandom and engagement are what truly matter now. From Under Armor to Procter & Gamble, major brands are launching their own content channels and becoming creators themselves rather than just renting influencers. This isn't your typical brand content strategy, this is a fundamental shift in how marketing dollars flow.

We also tackled the elephant in the room: YouTube's dominance and whether anyone can challenge it, the explosive growth of retail media networks like Walmart and Amazon, and why traditional media companies like Disney and Warner Brothers are finally embracing platforms they once feared. Evan predicts the AI bubble will burst in 2026, not because the technology isn't valuable, but because it won't be the sexy revolution everyone's hyping. Instead, AI will improve things behind the scenes with targeting optimization and efficiency gains. Plus, we discussed the rise of social media politicians and how $2.5 billion in political ad spending could fundamentally change addressable TV advertising. This conversation is packed with insights you won't want to miss.

Key Highlights

🎯 Engagement Over Reach: Scale and reach are now vanity metrics. The biggest shift in the creator economy is toward fandom and deep engagement rather than pure subscriber counts. Mr. Beast is the exception, creators like Amelia Dimoldenberg and Sean Evans prove that smaller, highly engaged audiences drive better business results.

🏢 Brands Become Creators: Under Armor, Procter & Gamble, and L'Oreal are launching their own content channels and production companies. Instead of hiring influencers, brands will convert ad spend into creating their own entertainment channels, following the Barbie and LEGO model of becoming lifestyle brands.

📺 Traditional Media's Creator Problem: Disney still treats YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok as brochure ware with trailers and promotional content. In 2026, major studios will finally go all-in on real content for these platforms, similar to how they eventually launched Disney+ after years of resistance.

🤖 The AI Bubble Will Burst: The hype around AI making movies, commercials, and scripts will deflate in 2026. AI's real value lies in boring but crucial improvements to targeting, optimization, and efficiency, not in replacing creative talent. Disney's $1.5 billion investment in OpenAI signals they're getting ahead of this shift.

🛍️ Retail Media's Next Wave: We're in the first half of the first inning of shoppable TV. Walmart's integration of Vizio will make them the second-largest retail media network after Amazon. This enables a whole new class of TV advertisers and unlocks budgets that never intersected with traditional media spending.

📱 Instagram and TikTok Launch CTV: Evan predicts both Instagram and TikTok will launch connected TV platforms in 2026. When Oracle takes control of TikTok in the US, a television product is inevitable. YouTube's success with shorts on TV proves short-form content can work on the big screen.

💰 YouTube's Branded Content Explosion: Branded deals embedded in YouTube videos grew over 50% in the first half of 2025, becoming the fastest-growing segment of YouTube's ad economy. With dynamic insertion launching for branded content in 2026, this will dramatically accelerate and become more scalable.

🗳️ Political Ads Transform CTV: The $2.5 billion political ecosystem will spend on hyper-local, outcome-based ads in 2026. This wave of aggressive buyers targeting at the neighborhood level will change television advertising at the genetic level and unlock the true promise of addressable TV.

Resources & Next Steps

🔗 Follow Evan Shapiro on LinkedIn

🎧 Subscribe to Next in Media on Apple Podcasts