The Inside Pitch w/Josh Towers: Ep 2

Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg break down the latest stories in Major League Baseball with some futures bets.

Episode Overview

Hosts:

Scott Seidenberg

Josh Towers (former MLB pitcher)

Platform: Pregame.com

Recording Date: Monday, April 7

The episode dives deep into early MLB season narratives, controversial contracts, betting analysis, standout rookies, and pitching strategy under unusual conditions.

💸 Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s $500M Contract Extension

Main Topic:

Toronto Blue Jays signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a 14-year, $500M extension — third largest in MLB history.

Key Points:

Marketing move over merit: Hosts argue the contract is more about maintaining a face-of-the-franchise than building a championship team.

Toronto tax: The team has to overpay to attract/retain talent.

Longevity gamble: At 26 years old, Vladdy is locked in until 40 — an uncommon move before the Freddie Freeman/Dodgers precedent.

Influence & optics: Contract helps attract other players, demonstrating the team's commitment to spending and stability.

🧠 Front Office Influence

Discussion:

Josh speculates this contract was pushed more by Mark Shapiro (team president) than GM Ross Atkins.

Contrasts front office control in Toronto with independent GMs like Brian Cashman and Alex Anthopoulos.

📊 Betting Focus: Braves, Giants & Playoff Odds

Braves Slump:

Started the season 0–7 (now 1–8).

No team in MLB history has made the postseason after such a start.

Plus-160 odds to miss the playoffs became a value discussion.

Injuries to Acuna Jr., Strider, and Fried are key to the slow start.

NL Playoff Picture:

NL West (Dodgers, Padres, Giants) looks dominant early.

Potential for 3 or even 4 playoff teams from that division.

Braves may fall out if trends continue.

🌟 Rookie of the Year Race

Jacob Wilson (A’s Shortstop):

Off to a blazing start (.351 AVG, 2 HR, 2 K in 37 AB).

Not hyped by MLB media due to team market size.

Compared to Luis Arraez (contact hitter).

Plus-380 odds to win AL ROY seen as great value.

Christian Campbell (Red Sox):

Batting .364, more public hype.

Plus-200 odds but projected to fade due to tougher season grind.

Jack Leiter (Rangers pitcher):

Plus-1800 odds, solid early season.

Improved pitch arsenal; strong mentorship under DeGrom & Eovaldi.

Other Mentions:

Dylan Crews (overhyped), Jackson Jobe (not ready yet), Jason Dominguez (defensive liability), Cam Smith (slow start).

⚾ Weather, Matchups & Game Day Betting Angles

Cold-Weather Games:

Cubs vs. Rangers in 22°F wind chill: lean UNDER 6 total runs.

Mental toughness & pitcher comfort are major factors.

Books are adjusting lines massively (e.g., -185 no-run first inning).

High Altitude Ballparks:

Sacramento games all going OVER.

Similar to Colorado: air affects pitch break, increasing scoring.

Betting value exists when under-the-radar pitchers struggle in altitude.

📈 Betting Trends & Strategy

Favorites:

Winning 63.6% of games early season (historical avg is ~57%).

Favorites of -250 or more: 5–1 so far.

Teams like Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Yankees often cover -1.5 run line.

Top Over Teams:

Cardinals (7-1-1), Yankees (7-2), Cubs (8-3-1)

Top Under Teams:

Rangers (8-2), Rays (7-2)

MLB Contest Plug:

Pregame.com running a Beat Andre Gomes contest, with $1,000 prize opportunity.

🏁 Final Thoughts

Jacob Wilson ROY pick at +380: Best value of the year so far.

Jack Leiter: Worth a longshot bet.

DeGrom for AL Cy Young: Still a live bet at +1200.

Weather, altitude, and betting psychology are underrated angles for early-season MLB betting.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices