Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 366: Mikihiro Matsuoka on Japan's Inflation, BOJ Policy Shifts, and the Weak Yen Challenge
15 snips
Jul 10, 2026 
Mikihiro Matsuoka, Chief Economist at SBI Securities and a veteran Japan macro specialist, offers sharp takes on Japan's inflation puzzle and the Bank of Japan's likely policy path. He discusses the weak yen, fiscal vulnerability, nominal GDP targeting versus inflation targeting, wage and labor-hour dynamics, and how remote work, AI-driven capex, and tax choices shape Japan's outlook.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Small Firms Are Strained By Wage Pressure
- Smaller and mid-sized firms cannot raise wages as large firms can because personnel costs remain a higher share of sales.
- Matsuoka shows relative wages of small versus large companies have not improved, limiting wage gains for many workers.
Declining Hours Worked Act As Hidden Supply Shock
- Hours worked per person have fallen sharply in Japan, acting as a negative supply shock and constraining labour input despite aging.
- Matsuoka links this to work-style reforms since 2018 and social security thresholds that disincentivize extra hours for part-timers.
BOJ Likely To Tighten Slowly Not Aggressively
- The BOJ will likely raise rates gradually and flexibly, perhaps 25bp roughly every six months, not a rapid march to 1.5%.
- Matsuoka contrasts his 'should be' lower rate view with a 'will be' gradual tightening stance by BOJ.