The Julia La Roche Show #305 James Lavish: The TGA — The Most Important Macro Concept Right Now That Most People Are Missing
Nov 13, 2025
James Lavish, co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and macroeconomic analyst, discusses the impact of a government shutdown that has locked $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account, causing liquidity concerns. He warns that many Americans have lost 25% of their purchasing power since 2020 and highlights the growing divide in wealth, with the top 1% gaining significantly more than the bottom 50%. Lavish stresses the importance of hard assets like Bitcoin and gold, cautioning against mistaking liquidity influx for real economic prosperity.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Fed Trapped Between Dual Mandates
- The Fed is trapped between controlling inflation and supporting full employment, making policy decisions conflicted.
- Persistent ~3% inflation reflects this dual mandate rather than temporary factors.
Why The TGA Controls Market Liquidity
- The Treasury General Account (TGA) holds cash from new debt and funds government spending when disbursed.
- A large TGA balance locks liquidity out of markets and reduces bank reserves, tightening financial conditions.
Govt Worker Left Unpaid During Shutdown
- James described his brother-in-law, a necessary defense employee, who hasn't been paid during the shutdown and must use credit cards.
- This example shows how TGA freezes directly reduce household cash flow and economic activity.