Kontrarian Korner #8 - Christine Guerrero

I had Christine Guerrero on the podcast last week to talk about oil and what’s going on in energy markets today. She’s a good follow on Twitter for any of the social media junkies out there. You can also watch the podcast on YouTube. We also discussed stocks in different parts of the energy sector, including Frontera and Petrobras $PBR . I’ll be touching on both stocks briefly in my portfolio update later this week.

Podcast Summary

We covered lots of topics, including:

* An in depth walkthrough of the long term supply and demand picture for oil.

* Capex underinvestment over the last decade.

* Permian Basin recency bias.

* Frack spreads vs. rig count as an indicator for oil markets.

* Negative natural gas prices at the Permian terminal and Waha terminal.

* The Matterhorn pipeline coming online at the end of Q3, which should add additional pipeline capacity for the Permian.

* The Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

* Frontera Energy’s current situation with their offshore block in Guyana.

* Petrobras vs. Lula, and the political uncertainty around the company.

* Book Recommendations: How To Listen When Markets Speak by Larry McDonald and Animal Spirits by George Akerlof.

“They [Wood MacKenzie] actually believe that by 2034, we’re going to need to add another 22 million barrels a day of new liquids production.”

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