Global Data Pod Global Data Pod: Steppe Forward into Oasis: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan 2026 outlook
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Dec 8, 2025 Anatoliy Shal is an economist who focuses on Uzbekistan's structural reforms and macroeconomic growth, while Khamza Sharifzoda specializes in Kazakhstan's monetary policy and debt markets. They discuss Uzbekistan's reform-driven growth and gold export boost, attracting investor interest. Khamza highlights Kazakhstan’s rising local bond market and improved policy credibility. The pair also tackle inflation dynamics, fiscal risks, and the overall outlook for 2026, offering insights into regional economic stability and potential challenges ahead.
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Uzbekistan's Durable Growth Engine
- Uzbekistan's growth is a sustained secular story since 2017 driven by reforms and investment.
- Higher gold prices in 2025 amplified fundamentals and made Uzbekistan a clear gold-exposed frontier play.
Falling Inflation Boosts Local-Rate Story
- Uzbekistan's exchange rate has been appreciating while inflation is decelerating.
- That combination increases the case for eventual central bank rate cuts and local-rate exposure.
Kazakhstan's Credibility Attracts Investors
- Kazakhstan drew new investors in 2025 as local bond and FX credibility improved.
- Higher policy rates and fresh investor participation expanded its frontier-market appeal.