Shift Key with Robinson Meyer and Jesse Jenkins How China’s Power Grid Really Works
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Oct 8, 2025 Michael Davidson, a UC San Diego professor specializing in Chinese electricity and climate policy, delves into China’s recent climate commitment to reduce emissions by 7-10% by 2035. He discusses the complexities of China’s energy grid, revealing the tension between central and provincial governments. Davidson explains why China may under-promise yet over-deliver on renewable energy targets and addresses the challenges of integrating renewables and coal into the power system. The conversation also touches on the rapid growth of electricity demand and what that means for future planning.
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China's New NDC Sets A Conservative Floor
- China's new NDC pledges a 7–10% cut from peak emissions by 2035 and 3,600 GW wind+solar capacity.
- Analysts view this as conservative but purposely sets a credible floor for under-promising and over-delivering.
3,600 GW Is Ambitious But Conditional
- The 3,600 GW wind+solar goal by 2035 implies building ~200+ GW/year and aligns with high-end climate scenarios.
- That capacity could yield ~50% wind+solar generation by 2035 if utilization and integration improve.
Policy Timing Drove 2025 Build Surge
- Rapid 2025 buildouts were driven by tariff changes and a rush before market reforms in May.
- After May, installations collapsed as provinces recalibrate new compensation schemes.