The Investors First Podcast Annie Duke & Steve Curley, CFA: Tracking Error, Career Risk, & How to Decide
Oct 12, 2020
Annie Duke, former top poker player turned author and speaker, dives into decision-making with topics like tracking error, career risk, and combating memory creep. She discusses enhancing predictions, group decision-making, and the importance of process-focused mindset. Listen for valuable insights on making better choices.
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Pete Carroll's Super Bowl Call
- Seahawks coach Pete Carroll's decision to pass in Super Bowl XLIX, resulting in an interception and loss, is often criticized.
- However, analysis reveals this was a reasonable decision with a low interception probability, aiming for a potential third play option.
Belichick's 4th Down Gamble
- Patriots coach Bill Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th down in 2009, failing and losing the game, was widely criticized.
- Statistically, the play had a 60% success rate, highlighting how outcome often overshadows decision quality.
Career Risk in Coaching
- Established coaches like Belichick and Carroll, with proven track records, are more comfortable taking risks.
- Younger coaches, concerned about career risk, may avoid unconventional decisions despite their potential long-term benefits.