Host interviews Karen Harris to discuss the effectiveness of the Fed in controlling inflation and the role of financial markets in disinflation. Analyzing the stability of prices and uncertainty in inflation. Exploring interest rates and investor reactions. Assessing the state of the US economy and its ability to withstand rate hikes. Monitoring the macro situation and finding deals.
The decline in core inflation can potentially be attributed to factors other than the Fed's actions, such as the financial markets.
The stability of prices remains uncertain, with the potential for a second wave of inflation or deflation, leading to uncertainty about future interest rates.
Deep dives
The Fed's Role in Inflation
The podcast discusses how the Fed's actions have influenced core inflation. The speaker analyzes a super core inflation metric, which excludes volatile sectors and lags. This measure has fallen to 0.5% annualized over the past three months, the lowest it has been since 1990. The speaker questions whether the Fed can take credit for this decline in inflation or if other factors were at play, such as the financial markets. The timeline suggests that the economy engineered its own soft landing after an overheated 2021, triggering a contraction, allowing for disinflation.
Price Stability and Uncertainty
The podcast examines the stability of prices and the uncertainty surrounding future interest rate prognosis. The speaker highlights that the current price level is not stable, with certain categories of goods and services showing notable increases. Food is 20% above pre-pandemic trends, while transportation commodities and vehicles are 32% higher. Despite the seemingly stable price level over the last three months, it is suggested that prices should either move higher or lower. The potential for a second wave of inflation or even deflation is raised, leading to uncertainty about future interest rates and their impact.
The Outlook for the US Economy
The podcast explores the potential impact of interest rate hikes on the US economy. It is noted that fixed mortgage rates in the US have minimized the immediate impact on homeowners and consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of GDP. However, the speaker discusses the various consequences of higher interest rates, including impacts on job availability, labor movement, and affordability of home ownership for younger generations. While there is optimism about a soft landing and no recession, the speaker suggests that significant changes and distortions in the economy may create challenges that are difficult to anticipate beyond the short term.