Making Sense “A year of surprises”: Global capital markets recap and 2025 outlook
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Dec 12, 2024 In this engaging discussion, Kevin Foley, the Global Head of Capital Markets at J.P. Morgan, shares expert insights on surprising market trends from 2024 and what to expect in 2025. He delves into refinancing trends, the impact of the U.S. election, and the evolving landscape of M&A and IPO activities, highlighting cautious optimism driven by economic resilience. Foley also examines the complex interplay of fiscal and monetary policies amid inflationary pressures, while cautioning about global capital risks and geopolitical developments that shape the market's future.
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2024: A Year of Surprises
- 2024 surprised with resilient economy and fewer-than-expected rate cuts.
- This created a "Goldilocks environment" with optimism about the next administration.
Market Activity
- Leveraged finance, especially loans, saw record volumes, but 90% was refinancing.
- This borrower-friendly market resulted from high demand and limited new issuances.
Market Optimism and Risks
- Markets are priced for perfection, reflecting optimism about the election and economic outlook.
- However, geopolitical concerns and inflation remain potential risks.