The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch 20VC OGs: SpaceX Valued at $800BN & Harvey Raises $160M at an $8BN Price | Airwallex Raises $330M and The Battle with Keith Rabois | Netflix Acquires Warner Brothers | IPO Market Predictions for 2026: Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks and SpaceX
342 snips
Dec 11, 2025 
Rory O'Driscoll, a venture capitalist known for his expertise in tech valuations, and Jason Lemkin, a savvy SaaS investor, dive into the high-stakes world of venture capital. They dissect SpaceX's staggering $800 billion valuation and explore the implications for upcoming IPOs in 2026, including predictions on firms like Anthropic and Databricks. The duo also debates Netflix’s audacious acquisition of Warner Brothers and whether legal AI startup Harvey can sustain its growth amidst fierce competition. Tune in for insights on the evolving app landscape and the impact of AI on industries!
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Elon Premium Distorts Valuation
- SpaceX's $800B secondary reflects an 'Elon premium' beyond cashflow multiples and requires exceptional growth to justify.
- Private high-water marks can make IPOs emotionally unattractive if public markets value them lower.
Power Law Makes IPO Years Bumper
- A few mega-IPOs can return a disproportionate share of venture capital value and make a single year 'bumper' for liquidity.
- One or two giant listings can dwarf many smaller IPOs in returned capital.
Weigh Certainty And Regulatory Risk
- If you're a board, assess certainty of close when comparing competing acquirers and prefer bidders with clearer paths.
- Consider regulatory and political risks early when evaluating strategic sales like Netflix’s bid.
