Strong Black Friday Online Spending Bodes Well for Season
Nov 27, 2023
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Bloomberg Intelligence explores Black Friday data and Cyber Monday outlook, while discussing 'buy now, pay later' services. The cease-fire in Israel-Hamas conflict is analyzed by Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. Investing in diverse tech startups is discussed by Unconventional Ventures' Co-Founder. Drive to the Close with Chief Investment Officer at Frost Investment Advisors.
Despite negative sentiment, consumers are still spending, possibly due to increased discounting and buy now, pay later options, raising concerns about increased borrowing and potential weakening of employment.
Limited progress in funding diverse founders raises concerns about the ongoing barriers faced by female entrepreneurs, with funding for female teams ranging from as low as 0.9% in Northern Europe to around 2% globally.
Deep dives
Consumer income is falling, leading to growing gloominess
Consumer income has been decreasing, leading to concerns about consumer spending and overall gloominess. The saving rate has fallen, credit card balances have increased, and consumers are leveraging more. Despite negative sentiment, consumers are still spending, possibly due to increased discounting and the use of buy now, pay later options. However, this increased borrowing and potential weakening of employment is worrisome for the outlook of consumer spending.
Uncertainty in the VC market and the struggle for funding female-led startups
The venture capital market has been challenging, with a significant number of down rounds and declining VC funding in recent quarters. Furthermore, the funding gap for female-led startups remains a persistent problem. In Northern Europe, funding for female teams is as low as 0.9%, and globally, it hovers around 2%. Despite efforts to address diversity and inclusion, representation and decision-making roles within VC firms have not improved, leading to limited progress in funding diverse founders. This lack of progress raises concerns about the ongoing barriers faced by female entrepreneurs.
Caution in the near-term bond market and skepticism towards rate cuts
The bond market has experienced a significant rally with falling rates, but there are concerns that rates have overshot on the downside. The expectation of three rate cuts in 2024 seems unrealistic, and many believe that the market has not fully accounted for this. Skepticism remains towards a soft landing for the economy, especially after the significant rate increases in recent years. While the Fed may be cautious and proactive, it is unlikely to aggressively cut rates, which could pose risks to the stock market in the coming year.
Mixed outlook for the stock market with a year-end rally
Despite potential concerns, there is optimism for a year-end rally in the stock market. Seasonally, the fourth quarter tends to be bullish, and it is advisable to enjoy this bullishness while it lasts. However, caution is warranted for the future. Investors should consider the risks posed by the uncertain consumer sentiment, potential economic weakness, and the possibility of rates not falling as expected. These factors could impact the market and corporate earnings in the long term.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst for E-Commerce Poonam Goyal breaks down data for Black Friday and the outlook for Cyber Monday sales. Dr. Ariel Cohen, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, shares his thoughts on the Israel-Hamas cease-fire. Nora Bavey, Co-Founder of Unconventional Ventures, discusses investing in tech startups with diverse founding teams and founders. And we Drive to the Close with Mace McCain, Chief Investment Officer at Frost Investment Advisors. Hosts: Carol Massar and Bailey Lipschultz. Producer: Paul Brennan.