Your Money, Your Wealth Sell in May and Go Away: Can You Time the Market? - 169
May 15, 2018
In this fascinating discussion, Paul Merriman, a nationally recognized expert in mutual funds and asset allocation, dives into the hot topic of market timing versus buy-and-hold strategies. He shares his unique approach of blending both to shield against market downturns. Listeners gain insights into constructing diversified portfolios and the pitfalls of emotional investing. Paul also tackles practical questions about Social Security, IRA rollovers, and strategic marriage timing, offering valuable resources for small investors.
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Timing Cuts Time In Market Not Guarantees
- Market timing reduces time-in-market and risk but rarely beats buy-and-hold over the long term.
- Paul Merriman warns most timers are wrong often and underperform during long uptrends.
Keep Trend Systems Mechanical
- If you use mechanical trend-following, make it entirely mechanical and unemotional to avoid cheating.
- Expect many losing signals and stick to the rules or you will likely underperform.
Diversification Outperformed S&P In The 2000s
- Diversification across styles and regions smooths long-term returns compared with single-index exposure.
- Paul says big/small/value/growth and international allocations compounded far better in 2000–2009 than S&P-only.
