Squawk Pod Inflation, Fed Independence, & Iran 1/15/26
Jan 15, 2026
Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and Steve Liesman, CNBC's Senior Economics Reporter, delve into pressing economic issues. They discuss the recent surprise in jobless claims and its implications for labor market stability. Goolsbee emphasizes the necessity for convincing evidence on inflation before making significant rate cuts. The duo also tackles the potential ramifications of the DOJ's investigation into Fed Chair Jay Powell, warning that legal scrutiny could challenge central bank independence.
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Fed Independence Is Now Front And Center
- Public debate has crystallized around Fed independence after the DOJ probe into Jay Powell.
- Market and business leaders are signaling strong pushback against political interference in the central bank.
Markets Reroute Rate Expectations
- Fed funds futures show markets have largely ruled out a Powell cut before he leaves and now price a June rate cut differently.
- Kevin Warsh's rising odds versus Kevin Hassett shift perceived future Fed hawkishness.
Iran Protests Are Unusually Potent
- The Iranian protest movement is historically broader and more intense than prior waves, increasing regime vulnerability.
- Dan Senor argues U.S. kinetic support could materially change internal dynamics by weakening security forces.