MLB Weekend Preview + Best Bets !!

Jul 11, 2025

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Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner break down the MLB Friday card and much more. ⚾ Shane Smith all-star start: Despite being less favored than Cannon, Smith offers betting value due to Logan Allen’s vulnerability.

📈 White Sox Friday performance: They're 5-1 SU and ATS on series-opening Fridays at home, suggesting a trend-based edge.

🔥 Dean Kremer at home: He boasts a 2.37 ERA in 6 Baltimore appearances, indicating potential value despite Griffin’s Marlins lean.

📉 Carlos Rodon's struggles: Yankees have lost 4 of his last 5 starts, with 3 BBs in each of the last two games.

🧊 Tariq Skubal’s home dominance: 9-1 at home, 2.00 ERA, 23 Ks in his last 14 innings.

💥 Milwaukee’s post-Dodgers sweep: While hot, the Brewers may be ripe for a letdown against feisty Nationals.

🔄 Doubleheader betting strategy: Bet game one; if lost, hedge on the same team in game two expecting a split.

📊 McCullers’ home ERA: 24 earned runs in 19 IP at home vs. just 1 on the road—fade him in Houston.

🚫 Pirates’ road slugging woes: Only .306 slugging on the road; reinforces under trend in Paul Skenes starts.

🧪 Max Scherzer caution: Aging and injury-prone; look to back A’s and the over vs. Blue Jays in West Sacramento.

Guardians vs. White Sox Game 1: Shane Smith starts for Chicago, Logan Allen for Cleveland. Griffin leans White Sox due to skepticism of Allen and Chicago’s Friday performance (5-1 SU and ATS).
Marlins at Orioles: Cabrera (MIA) vs. Kremer (BAL). Cabrera has been strong on the road (4-2 SU), Kremer has a 2.37 ERA at home. Munaf leans Orioles; Griffin is tentative due to Baltimore’s recent DH and Cabrera's improved base-stealing prevention.
Cubs at Yankees: Rodon struggles lately (6 ER vs. Mets), while Flexen is an uncertain bullpen piece. Yankees' team total over is suggested due to Cubs’ offensive slump and Rodon’s 3.25 ERA at home.
Rockies at Reds: Chase Burns looks to rebound from a brutal Boston start. Rockies’ Marquez is inconsistent. Betting leans toward Reds team total over or passing altogether.
Rays at Red Sox: Rasmussen limited to ~2 innings. Dobbins is solid at Fenway (3.22 ERA). Rays as small dogs are interesting despite using bullpen-heavy strategy.
Mariners at Tigers: Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. dominant Skubal (DET). With Skubal 9-1 at home, Munaf leans under; Griffin backs Mariners +1.5 due to line value.
Nationals at Brewers: Priester vs. Parker. Griffin warns of Brewers’ letdown after sweeping Dodgers, but doesn’t trust Parker. Munaf likes Brewers -1.5 despite potential trap.
Astros vs. Rangers: Jack Leiter vs. Lance McCullers. Despite travel fatigue, Munaf fades McCullers’ horrific home stats (24 ER in 19 IP), backing Rangers and over 8.
Pirates at Twins: Skenes vs. Joe Ryan. Skenes gets little support from weak Pirates offense (.306 SLG on road). Under 7 or 3.5 F5 is recommended.
Dodgers at Giants: May vs. Logan Webb. Dodgers slump (lost 6 straight), but priced strangely. Griffin leans Giants, pending possible line movement favoring LA for better value.

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