At Any Rate Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy for 2026
5 snips
Nov 26, 2025 Join Jahangir Aziz, Head of Emerging Markets Economic Research, and Jonny Goulden, Head of E&F Fixed Income Strategy, as they dive into the optimistic 2026 outlook for emerging markets. Jahangir breaks down factors like AI investment, tariff uncertainties, and regional growth forecasts, while Jonny shares insights on the potential for EM currencies and high-yield local bonds. With discussions on inflation trends, monetary policy shifts, and key market themes, they reveal why this might be a pivotal year for emerging markets.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Tariffs Less Painful Than Feared
- Tariff threats proved less damaging because exemptions and muted implementation reduced their economic bite.
- AI-driven CAPEX and fiscal support jointly boosted EM growth beyond initial fears in 2025.
AI Investment Growth Will Moderate
- AI hyperscaler investment surged in 2025 but is expected to decelerate in 2026 from ~69% growth to ~30–35%.
- That slowdown implies tech export growth from North Asia will moderate but not collapse.
Tariff Uncertainty Still A Volatility Risk
- Tariff uncertainty remains a volatility risk, especially around Supreme Court IEPA rulings and China–US relations.
- The baseline assumes average tariff rates stay around current levels, not materially lower.