In this podcast, the hosts discuss topics like the economy, fraud in the crypto market, eccentric companies, wealth inequality, and the economic impact of obesity and weight loss. They explore the potential of weight loss drugs and the opportunities for investment. They also touch on the economic impact of retiring later and the concept of R star.
Obesity is a major problem worldwide, affecting half the population in 34 out of 36 OECD countries, and it has significant implications for the economy and public health.
GLP-1 drugs, like Wegovy and Ozempic, have the potential to disrupt the healthcare industry and macroeconomics by reducing medical costs, improving productivity, and addressing long-term budget deficits.
The introduction of GLP-1 drugs is likely to disrupt various industries, including pharmaceuticals and medical treatment providers, while opening up investment opportunities in drug manufacturing and insurance coverage.
Deep dives
Obesity is a Global Epidemic with Serious Consequences
Obesity is a major problem worldwide, affecting half the population in 34 out of 36 OECD countries. It is responsible for a significant portion of healthcare costs, as well as a loss of productivity and a drag on GDP growth rates. The scale of the problem continues to increase rapidly, with obesity rates reaching 42% in the United States. This has massive implications for the economy and public health.
GLP-1 Drugs as a Potential Game Changer
GLP-1 drugs, such as Wegovy and Ozempic, are a new class of medications that have shown significant weight loss benefits. These drugs slow down digestion and trick the mind into feeling full. They have the potential to disrupt the healthcare industry and macroeconomics by reducing medical costs, improving productivity, and addressing long-term budget deficits.
The Market Potential and Impact of GLP-1 Drugs
The market potential for GLP-1 drugs is massive, with current sales of $2.2 billion expected to reach $40 billion within the next five years. The total global addressable market could be as high as $100 billion. Companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are already seeing significant gains in their stock prices. There are also potential implications for various industries, such as airlines, fast food, and sports equipment.
Potential Disruption and Investment Opportunities
The introduction of GLP-1 drugs is likely to disrupt various industries, including pharmaceuticals, medical treatment providers, and others associated with obesity-related issues. Investors can consider shorting stocks of companies that may be disrupted, such as makers of diabetes drugs and dialysis providers. On the flip side, there may be investment opportunities in companies associated with drug manufacturing, insurance coverage, and other related areas that benefit from the use of GLP-1 drugs.
The Long-Term Impact on Interest Rates and Public Policy
The use of GLP-1 drugs has the potential to have a significant impact on long-term interest rates and public policy. By addressing the obesity epidemic, these drugs can help improve productivity, reduce healthcare costs, and transform budget deficits. This could lead to a more sustainable economic trajectory and prevent a fiscal crisis in the future.
On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey are joined by David Cervantes, principal and founder of Pinebrook Capital Management. David shares his groundbreaking thesis that could transform not only health care but also the broader economy. But first, Dan and Corey discuss disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried being found guilty of fraud, coworking-space company WeWork's impending bankruptcy, and fluctuating Treasury yields. (00:48)
Next, David joins the conversation to detail the far-reaching consequences of obesity, plus the potential impact of new weight-loss drugs on the economy. He notes that obesity not only places a significant financial burden on the health care system but also hampers overall productivity and gross domestic product ("GDP") growth rates. However, David clarifies that GLP-1 (or glucagon-like peptide 1) drugs have the potential to revolutionize obesity treatment. (26:28)
David then explores the potential winners and losers of this medical innovation. He stresses that it's not too late to make money off the drug manufacturers since there are plenty of companies developing and trying to improve these weight-loss drugs right now. He also touches on other sectors that will benefit from mass weight loss. (41:45)