The HC Commodities Podcast The Oil Market: OPEC+, Tariffs and Recession with Matt Smith
May 13, 2025
Matt Smith, the lead energy analyst for the US at Kepler, dives into the chaotic world of oil markets, addressing the intertwining issues of supply and demand, geopolitical tensions, and looming recession fears. He highlights OPEC's critical balancing act amid inflation, explores Iran's oil exports and their impact on global pricing, and discusses the significant volatility affecting traders. Smith also sheds light on dwindling U.S. oil inventories and the future outlook shaped by evolving refinery practices and ongoing political influences.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Non-OPEC Supply Surge
- Non-OPEC supply, particularly from the U.S. shale boom and Latin America, has significantly increased the oil market supply.
- OPEC has been restraining its output to maintain price stability amid this surge in non-OPEC production.
Latin America Supply Shifts
- Guyana's recent oil discoveries have rapidly increased its production to nearly a million barrels per day.
- Mexico and Venezuela are facing declines, impacting U.S. Gulf Coast supply of heavy crude.
OPEC+ Internal Fractures
- Kazakhstan's overproduction beyond agreed OPEC+ cuts has caused friction within OPEC.
- Some OPEC members with spare capacity want to increase output, while others hold back to support prices.