Albert Cheung, Deputy CEO of BloombergNEF, dives into the mixed results of clean energy in 2024, revealing record EV sales and clean power gains yet highlighting critical shortfalls in achieving net zero by 2050. He discusses five key lessons for the energy transition, addressing the challenges of insufficient investment while emphasizing the resilience of clean energy initiatives. Cheung also spotlights the urgent need for improved policies and collaboration in emerging sectors like hydrogen and offshore wind to foster a sustainable future.
Record advancements in clean energy technologies highlight the progress towards a lower-carbon economy, yet substantial gaps remain in achieving net zero by 2050.
The energy transition is evolving into a more complex arena requiring innovative solutions, sound policies, and strategic investments to overcome emerging challenges.
Deep dives
Unstoppable Growth in Clean Energy
The energy transition is expected to maintain its growth trajectory despite challenges faced in various sectors. Recent statistics indicate significant increases in clean energy technologies; for instance, the installation of solar PV rose by 35%, while energy storage increased by 76% in 2024. Although certain areas like offshore wind and clean hydrogen face hurdles, overall deployment shows promising signs, with projections for substantial clean hydrogen production capacity by 2030. This suggests that despite external factors and slower growth rates in some regions, the energy transition will not experience a significant slowdown.
Navigating Complexity in the Transition
As the energy transition matures, it is becoming increasingly complex, with the easier opportunities already leveraged by early market adopters. Growth rates for electric vehicles (EVs) and solar installations are predicted to stabilize, reflecting a more linear progression rather than rapid exponential growth. Emerging markets are likely to become the new drivers of growth, although they face their own regulatory challenges that hinder large-scale clean energy adoption. Consequently, advancing the transition will require innovative solutions to new problems, focusing on infrastructure, charging, and integrating renewable energy into existing markets.
Profitability and Geoeconomic Competition
The economic viability of the energy transition is paramount, necessitating investments that yield risk-adjusted returns for companies and investors alike. Challenges in sectors like hydrogen demonstrate that public funding alone cannot drive the transition; instead, sound policies supporting long-term investments are crucial. Additionally, the growing focus on geoeconomic competition complicates the transition, as countries evaluate how to enhance their competitive advantage while managing resource and supply chain pressures. Policymakers are urged to balance fostering domestic industry with access to global innovations to ensure an efficient and cost-effective energy transition.
Was 2024 a good or a bad year for clean energy and climate progress? Looking through one prism, we saw record global electric vehicle sales, massive clean power capacity additions, and the adoption of new energy storage technologies. Yet, if we compare these record numbers to what is actually required to achieve net zero by 2050, we find ourselves falling short. What lessons can be learned from the year gone by, and how might we apply these lessons to improve future outcomes? On today’s show, BloombergNEF’s Deputy CEO, Albert Cheung, shares his note “Five Energy Transition Lessons for 2025.”
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com