The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 352. Nearly 1M Jobs Vanish, Industrial Demand Cools, Return-to-Office Mandates, D.C.'s Office-to-Resi Tax Incentives, & More
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Sep 12, 2025 This week, a major labor market revision reveals nearly one million job losses, prompting a discussion on potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Industrial real estate demand shows signs of cooling amid economic uncertainties, while companies like Paramount push return-to-office mandates. In Washington D.C., new tax incentives aim to boost office-to-residential conversion. The show also highlights notable retail property sales, showcasing continued interest in the high street and grocery sectors. Tune in for these insights and more!
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Massive Job Revision Shifts Rate Odds
- The BLS revised US job growth down by 911,000 for the 12 months through March 2025, halving reported monthly gains to ~70k.
- That large revision strengthens the case for at least a 25 bps Fed cut and raises odds of a 50 bps debate.
Birth–Death Model Causes Payroll Noise
- The birth–death model drives much of the payroll noise and tends to overstate job additions around inflection points.
- Expect continued noisy revisions for another 1–2 years due to the five-year lookback in the BLS model.
Account For Revisions When Making Decisions
- Be skeptical of headline macro prints and incorporate potential revisions into decisions.
- Demand more timely or alternative data sources to avoid overreacting to noisy monthly releases.