BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast Will Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6%? Here’s What Could Trigger Low Rates
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Mar 6, 2025 Mortgage rates are currently dipping, with hopes they could fall below 6% in 2025. The conversation centers on what economic factors might trigger further decreases. Analysts discuss the relationship between bond yields and mortgage rates, and how stock performance and unemployment affect the market's volatility. Listeners gain insights into the unpredictable nature of these rates and the investment strategies that could be employed as the landscape continues to shift. It's a must-listen for anyone navigating today's real estate market!
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Drivers of Mortgage Rates
- Mortgage rates are primarily influenced by two factors: US Treasury yields and the "spread".
- The spread represents the difference between bond yields and mortgage rates, fluctuating based on economic conditions.
Falling Mortgage Rates
- Mortgage rates have recently fallen due to weaker economic data, causing a decrease in bond yields.
- Weaker economic data typically leads to lower bond yields, which in turn influences mortgage rates.
Yield Predictions and Economic Conditions
- Logan Mohtashami predicts the 10-year yield will fluctuate between 3.8% and 4.7% in 2025.
- Reaching the lower end of this range (3.8%) would require further economic softening or a stock market sell-off.