BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Will Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6%? Here’s What Could Trigger Low Rates

Mar 6, 2025

Mortgage rates are currently dipping, with hopes they could fall below 6% in 2025. The conversation centers on what economic factors might trigger further decreases. Analysts discuss the relationship between bond yields and mortgage rates, and how stock performance and unemployment affect the market's volatility. Listeners gain insights into the unpredictable nature of these rates and the investment strategies that could be employed as the landscape continues to shift. It's a must-listen for anyone navigating today's real estate market!

16:47

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Quick takeaways

Mortgage rates have decreased to 6.75%, sparking discussions on whether they will continue to decline or rise again.

The trajectory of future mortgage rates heavily depends on upcoming economic indicators and the performance of the bond yield spread.

Deep dives

Recent Changes in Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have recently decreased, with the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage falling from 7.25% to 6.75%. This shift has sparked discussions in the real estate community about whether rates will continue to decline or if this is merely a brief respite before potentially rising again. The ongoing economic data trends, which have shown consistently underwhelming results, have played a significant role in this development. Negative economic news tends to lead to lower yields, which in turn influences mortgage rates, suggesting that the trajectory of future rates may depend heavily on upcoming economic indicators.

Intro

6min

Navigating Uncertainty in Mortgage Rates

3min

Navigating Mortgage Rate Trends in a Volatile Economy

9min

Mortgage rates have hit a new low for 2025, hovering around 6.75%, down from their peak of 7.25%. This is serious interest rate relief for homebuyers, real estate investors, and anyone getting a mortgage. But will mortgage rates fall even further in 2025? A new article from HousingWire’s Logan Mohtashami suggests that even more rate relief could be on the way, but not without a series of caveats.

To give our take, we’re bringing you a bonus episode where Dave breaks down Logan’s argument, gives his opinion on the hypotheses, and reveals what would have to happen for rates to drop into the low sixes, maybe even into the five percent range! With bond yields ticking down and recession fears mounting, mortgage rates seem poised to improve compared to the past couple of years.

Will we have to see economic pain before rates lower? Could rates go back up, even higher than before, if positive economic news emerges? Dave is breaking down both his own predictions and Logan’s in this bonus episode.

In This Episode We Cover:

Today’s mortgage rates and why we’re hitting 2025 lows

Two factors that influence mortgage rates and where they both stand now

The bond yield “spread” and how its improvement could keep rates low

What has to happen for rates to fall even more, and why it’s not all good news

Could mortgage rates get BELOW six percent in 2025?

And So Much More!

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