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Will Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6%? Here’s What Could Trigger Low Rates

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

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CHAPTER

Intro

This chapter examines the recent decrease in mortgage rates from 7.25% to 6.75% and the economic factors influencing this change. The speakers analyze the connection between Treasury yields and mortgage rates, discussing uncertainties that could affect future trends.

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Mortgage rates have hit a new low for 2025, hovering around 6.75%, down from their peak of 7.25%. This is serious interest rate relief for homebuyers, real estate investors, and anyone getting a mortgage. But will mortgage rates fall even further in 2025? A new article from HousingWire’s Logan Mohtashami suggests that even more rate relief could be on the way, but not without a series of caveats.

To give our take, we’re bringing you a bonus episode where Dave breaks down Logan’s argument, gives his opinion on the hypotheses, and reveals what would have to happen for rates to drop into the low sixes, maybe even into the five percent range! With bond yields ticking down and recession fears mounting, mortgage rates seem poised to improve compared to the past couple of years.

Will we have to see economic pain before rates lower? Could rates go back up, even higher than before, if positive economic news emerges? Dave is breaking down both his own predictions and Logan’s in this bonus episode.

In This Episode We Cover:

Today’s mortgage rates and why we’re hitting 2025 lows

Two factors that influence mortgage rates and where they both stand now

The bond yield “spread” and how its improvement could keep rates low

What has to happen for rates to fall even more, and why it’s not all good news

Could mortgage rates get BELOW six percent in 2025?

And So Much More!

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