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#25 – Julia Shvets on Overconfidence, Rank Incentives, and Lab vs Field Experiments

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Over Confidence in the Field?

"We realized that this was a very good testing ground for whether there was really persistent over confidence in the field," he says. To measure over confidence, we ask managers to predict which quintil of the ranking they would fall into at the end of the current quarter. "By quintile, of course, i mean which 20 %, from the bottom 20% to the top."

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