#215 Annie Duke- Frameworks for Making Better Decisions
What Got You There with Sean DeLaney
00:00
How to Live With Probabilities
The problem is that on the next day, when I've told you there's a 30% chance of rain and it actually rains because it's either going to rain or it's not, you now either say, well it rained, she was wrong. Or if it doesn't rain, you might say I'm right because, well, I said it was a 30%. So maybe I'm right that it didn't actually rain, but I'm neither right nor wrong. That kind of being able to live with sort of probabilities, as opposed to yes or no answers, I think that's incredibly hard.
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