Possible U.S. kinetic responses

A wounded protester in Iran puts it starkly: “I’m not scared. For 47 years, I’ve been dead.”

As protests spread across the country and chants turn openly existential, this special episode of Eye for Iran asks the question many are now asking: is Iran approaching a revolution? Is this the moment?

Negar Mojtahedi is joined by former UK Security Minister and Member of Parliament Tom Tugendhat, former senior CIA official Norman Roule, Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, and David Patrikarakos, journalist, author and special correspondent for The Daily Mail.

Tugendhat argues the Islamic Republic has entered its endgame, warning that Iran’s security forces will be judged by what they do next. Roule explains how Washington is assessing fast-moving unrest and what President Donald Trump’s warnings could mean in practice. Brodsky and Patrikarakos break down why this protest wave feels fundamentally different from 2009 and 2022, what real regime-change momentum looks like, and the decisive question ahead: can street protests translate into a coherent political alternative and meaningful defections inside the system?

You can watch this episode on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform of your choosing. You can also switch to Persian captions or any language of your choice on YouTube.

Contents for this video:

00:00 “I’m not scared. For 47 years, I’ve been dead.”
01:08 Iran on the brink of revolution: is this it
02:57 “This is the endgame” – Tom Tugendhat
06:15 Why this protest wave is different
09:33 Signs of regime panic and elite exits
13:23 Why the West should care now
18:36 Iran, Venezuela and collapsing proxy power
22:31 Is the West preparing for a post-regime Iran
23:37 Trump’s warning and the red line on repression
25:59 Has the regime’s myth of invincibility shattered
29:50 Former CIA official Norman Roule joins
31:53 Will Trump act if killings escalate
35:26 How relevant is Khamenei today
39:47 Succession battles and IRGC power
44:08 How intelligence reads a system in collapse
51:56 The cost of Western silence
55:47 Why this moment feels different from past protests
01:02:40 Can protests become real regime change
01:09:52 What happened to “Woman, Life, Freedom”
01:21:50 Final reflections: courage, risk and Iran’s future

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