China's split personality and innovation limits

Whither America? It’s the question that the Swedish writer Johan Norberg examines in both a recent Washington Post op-ed as well as his new book, Peak Human. What we can learn from history’s great civilizations, Norberg argues, is that they decline when they turn inward, away from both the outside world and innovation. “All Sparta, no Athens”, as he puts it. So what does that tell us not only about Trump’s America but also Putin’s Russia and Xi’s China? And what should we make of Europe, which is neither Sparta nor Athens? And when compared with China, Russia and Europe, Norberg’s vision of the American future seems relatively sunny. So maybe, with or without MAGA, the 21st century really will be the American century.

* MAGA doesn’t fit any traditional conservative or liberal framework. It’s a radical ideology built around a strongman who has no patience for democratic process, rule of law, or compromise—precisely the institutions that classical liberalism and genuine conservatism have always sought to protect.

* Declining empires are the most dangerous. Russia is “all Sparta, no Athens”—a society that builds barracks rather than innovation, extracts resources rather than creates wealth, and fears any neighboring democracy that might give its own people ideas. Putin may sense this is his last chance to rearrange the world order.

* China’s split personality may doom its long-term prospects. Deng Xiaoping borrowed from Athens—openness, experimentation, “crossing the river by feeling the stones.” Xi Jinping has reverted to Sparta—centralized control that can build electric vehicle factories fast but stifles the strange surprises that drive real innovation.

* America’s saving grace may be its constitutional limits. The courts are the only branch doing their job right now, striking down unconstitutional overreach one case at a time. Republicans know there’s life after Trump—and after two centuries of championing the Constitution, they can’t simply throw it aside.

* Europe is Rome without the military power. The EU’s great idea—an open continent that experiments with different solutions—is undermined by a Mandarin class in Brussels that insists on standardizing everything. That’s why great European startups keep moving to California.

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