3min chapter

80,000 Hours Podcast cover image

#39 - Spencer Greenberg on the scientific approach to solving difficult everyday questions

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

How to Optimize the Trade of Bias and Variance

The reference class is an outside view, so you're taking like a broader picture that's a bit less personal of the situation. Then you've got the inside view, which is likethe kind of your personal perspective on it,. And then a you could say, what about my friend in the last year? Is like getting more it's its reference class that's even more more constrained. We think of thisin mathematics as like a bias for sfaryand straight off a you as u u men an more relevant, like subset of the data. The further you go back, you get more data, so you have less variation, but you've more bias than the data set.

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