When you quantify things, it kind of gives you this feeling like something's really precise. But what they often don't do is a kind of sensitivity analysis and say, well, but what if I was wrong a little bit about some of these numbers? That's actually one thing I like about the Monte Carlo suggestion you gave: It builds the uncertainty analysis into the process. You're not just spitting out one number at the end. At the end of the day, we should view that as just a way of training our intuition," he says.

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