The Sins of Representativeness

A question about probability or likelihood activates a mental shotgun, evoking answers to easier questions. The false statement that elvis presley's parents wanted him to be a dentist is mildly funny because the discrepancy between the images of presley and a dentist is detected automatically. When some one says she will win the election, you can see she is a winner, or he won't go far. As an academic, too many tattoos, we rely on representativeness when we judge the potential leadership of a candidate for office. Although it is common, prediction by representativeness is not statistically optimal.