Macroeconomic Views and Trading Preferences

David Cervantes of Pine Brook Capital Management LLC joins Forward Guidance to share why he faded the recession consensus of 2022, why he decided to short bonds this year, and why as of early October he sees an opportunity to be long the U.S. 10-year Treasury as a tactical long. Filmed on October 5, 2023.

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Timecodes:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:58) Why 1 Year Ago Cervantes Thought Recession Was Unlikely

(07:05) Cervantes' Short Bond Trade

(14:45) Fed Policy

(26:16) Tracking The Economy

(32:35) There May Be A Slowdown, But A Recession Is Unlikely In Near-Term

(45:41) The Maturity Wall

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.