The book Ending Medical Reversal was written by Adam Sifu and Vinay Prasad. In it, they look at observational studies that are used to make medical decisions. After a while, time passes and there's an opportunity to do a randomized control trial. They find something quite similar: Fancy complicated methods work best in explaining the past. The fast and frugal tree does better going forward.
Psychologist and author Gerd Gigerenzer of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development talks about his book Gut Feelings with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Gigerenzer argues for the power of simple heuristics--rules of thumb--over more complex models when making real-world decisions. He argues that many results in behavioral economics that appear irrational can be understood as sensible ways of coping with complexity.