Climate and the Curve
Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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The Ill Curve Is a Prescient Leading Indicator of Recession
An inversion of the curve is a prescient, historically, a prescient leading indicator of recession. When investors are nervous about the future, you can see inversions where the shorter term yields suddenly rise above the longer term. So that's what we're talking about here today. The two year is about what 70 basis points above the 10 year. I think the three month is maybe 50 basis points. By historical standards, deeply inverted at this point, at least for those polar measures, measured, correct.
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