Predicting Potential Risks of Political Violence in the 2024 Election

Since the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, University of Chicago Prof. Robert Pape has been closely observing the threats to our democracy. Now, the renowned terrorism expert says that violent ideas coming from a dedicated minority are moving from fringe to mainstream.

In 2021, Pape's team along with NORC at the University of Chicago launched the Dangers to Democracy tracker, an ongoing series of surveys to track Americans' thoughts and attitudes about political violence. In one recent survey, about 12 million Americans said they believe violence is justified to restore Trump to power. Still, Pape believes the data may give us some answers about how to move forward, and how to strengthen the center.

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