80,000 Hours Podcast cover image

#140 – Bear Braumoeller on the case that war isn't in decline

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

Understanding War: Patterns and Probabilities

This chapter explores the complexities surrounding the definition and initiation of wars, examining geopolitical factors and the intricacies of militarized disputes throughout history. It highlights the dramatic decline in global conflict initiation post-Cold War and analyzes statistical concepts related to war lethality and escalatory propensity. Additionally, the discussion touches on the implications of historical data and models for predicting future conflicts among great powers.

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