#25 – Julia Shvets on Overconfidence, Rank Incentives, and Lab vs Field Experiments
Hear This Idea
00:00
Is This a Pessimistic Finding?
This is a very interesting question, and i think i'm not going to give an entirely satisfactory answer. So on the one hand, they are inaccurate. That's that's clear. But on the other hand, remember, we've come to this by saying, maybe what's at work here is this theory of motivated beliefs. And in fact, we've now come to evidence that's consistent with the theory of multivated beliefs. At the heart of this theory is a conjecture that people persist in over confidence because they're getting some benefit from it. They may also be paying a cost as well, because sometimes they will get it very wrong.
Transcript
Play full episode
