The way that people actually make predictions and forecasts tend to be something like this. You get some information, you're sort of thinking about it in relation to your own experience, and then you make a forecast. The base rate asks you to do an extra step, which is to say, don't just sort of look at the information that you have, and then think about it in relationship toyour own experience.
Our guest is Annie Duke, a retired pro poker player and First Round’s Special Partner focused on Decision Science. She’s also the author of the bestselling book, “Thinking in Bets.”
In today’s conversation, we’re talking about her follow-up to that book, titled “Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away,” which was just released this week.
Quitting is not a popular topic in startup circles and history is marked by success stories of founders who refused to quit, even when just about every signal was telling them to do so.
But Annie offers a counterintuitive approach. She dives into all the misconceptions about quitting, and makes the case that it can actually be a superpower, rather than a weakness. Annie explores the psychology behind why it’s so hard to walk away, and tactically what folks can do to get a clearer picture of the decisions ahead of them, rather than being clouded by biases. She also offers specific advice for advice-givers who are trying to nudge someone to change course, with tested tips for getting your message across gently, yet firmly.
And after the episode be sure to check out “Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.”
You can follow Annie on Twitter at @AnnieDuke.
You can email us questions directly at review@firstround.com or follow us on Twitter @ twitter.com/firstround and twitter.com/brettberson