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Why everything we’ve been taught about quitting is wrong — Annie Duke

In Depth

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Is the Base Rate So Important?

The way that people actually make predictions and forecasts tend to be something like this. You get some information, you're sort of thinking about it in relation to your own experience, and then you make a forecast. The base rate asks you to do an extra step, which is to say, don't just sort of look at the information that you have, and then think about it in relationship toyour own experience.

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