THINKING FAST AND SLOW - Commented Book
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The Manipulation of Causal Base Rates
Ashen used an ingenious method to suggest a non causal base rate. He told his subjects that the students they saw had been drawn from a sample which itself was constructed by selecting students who had passed or failed the exam. Causal base rates are used merely statistical facts, are more or less neglected. System one can deal with stories where elements are causally linked, but it is weak in statistical reasoning for a basian thinker.
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